Home sales make healthy improvement in February 2010

Home sales rose 46% in February and pending sales increased almost 7% over January on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, Metro area.

Ok, so January is rarely a great month in real estate in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope. But an increase from 43 sales in January to 63 in February (even with the distractions of Mardi Gras and the Super Bowl) is worth noting.

Buyer activity registered through property showings is also up.

But does it have staying power?

Maybe. People can only put their lives – and the real estate that’s often tied to it – on hold for so long. So there is a long pent-up demand.

Home prices are quite attractive on one hand, and some buyers are concerned about the specter of rising mortgage rates.

Certainly, the home-buyer tax credit, in which purchase agreements must be in place by April 30, is giving people a reason to move and move now.

But there is still uncertainty and reluctance among Realtors and those in related fields to say that “IT” is over.

On the horizon: The Home Affordable Alternative Foreclosure Program or HAFA, which goes into effect April 5. This program specifically deals with short sales where a property is worth less than what is owed. A major provision in this program is that lenders will be prohibited from demanding a seller repay the debt that’s released after the home sells.

There are many qualifications for sellers and undoubtedly loopholes for lenders, but it’s entirely possible that this may prompt a flood of new “short” properties on the market, whether they will be successful in using HAFA or not.

While this may give some sellers much-needed relief, it won’t bode well for stabilizing home prices.

 

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,203, including 74 short sales or foreclosures.
Spanish Fort: 152
Daphne: 373
Fairhope: 563
Lake Forest: 115
 
Pending sales
Total: 125 (28 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 16

Daphne: 47
Fairhope: 49
Lake Forest: 13
 
 
Closed sales for February 2010
Total: 63 (17 new construction)
Average sales price: Up again to $240,136, from $224,209 in January.

Median sales price: $179,850, which is down from $194,500 in January

List to sale percentage: 95.44%, up from 93% in January

Spanish Fort: 7
Daphne: 28
Fairhope: 21
Lake Forest: 7
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

 

If I can help you further in the sale or purchase of your home, please call 251 591-2411. (Yes, people do actually read this and call!)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pending sales show improvement, but January 2010 home sales weak

 

Pending home sales are showing signs of better days ahead for the real estate market on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, Metro area.

January sales were typically weak, at 43 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope, compared with 56 in December 2009. Still, last month’s sales were a slight improvement over January 2009 when just 40 homes sold.

This first week in February, 117 homes are under contract, a nice improvement from the 101 under contract in the first of January.

Pricing remains soft, with sellers taking on average 7 percent off the list price in January.

Inventory is rising, as it always does in the spring. Short sales and foreclosures remain a popular draw for buyers, but only represent 6% of all the homes listed on the Eastern Shore.

  

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,175, including 71 short sales or foreclosures.
Spanish Fort: 148
Daphne: 373
Fairhope: 547
Lake Forest: 107
 
Pending sales
Total: 117 (3 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 18

Daphne: 47
Fairhope: 39
Lake Forest: 13
 
 
Closed sales for January 2010
Total: 43 (11 new construction)
Average sales price: $224,209, down from $302, 814 in December 2009 (which was skewed by two $1 million-plus sales).

Median sales price: $194,500, up $188,041 in December 2009 and $182,801 in November.
List to sale percentage: 93%, down from 94.47% in December 2009 and 95.96% in November

Spanish Fort: 12
Daphne: 15
Fairhope: 9
Lake Forest: 7
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

 

 

Eastern Shore home prices hit the skids in 2009

Statistics can be manipulated. But the evidence shows a 17.5% decline in house values on the Eastern Shore in 2009. Coupled with our deceptive and behind-the-rest-of-the-nation 1% decline in 2008, housing prices are almost back to pre-Hurricane Ivan levels of 2003-04.

            The picture is a bit brighter in terms of the number of homes sold. Low interest rates, the first-time homebuyer tax credit and an abundance of inventory and incentives helped check the decline in the total sales to only 3.5% compared to 2008.

            For the year, 803 homes sold between Spanish Fort and Point Clear, compared with 833 last year. Of these sales, 35% (281) were new construction and 14% (110) were foreclosures or short sales. That means “regular” existing home sales represented only half of homes sold.

            Perhaps because of the entry of first-time buyers into the market, a little more than half of all sales were $200,000 or lower; and 82% of all sales were under $300,000. Yet, at present, only about a third of the Eastern Shore homes for sale are priced under $200,000.

            Sellers of homes priced over $300,000, which represent a third of the Eastern Shore inventory, will be under great pressure to compete for the few buyers in this market. Realtors and market-watching investors expect foreclosures to become more commonplace in the upper price ranges.

            But builders with new construction in the $200,000-and-lower range are making sales.

            Inventory is still high, with some 1,144 homes on the market (compared to 1,082 this time last January). There are no indicators to show that prices have hit bottom or stabilized locally.

            At the risk of sounding like a used car salesman (my apologies to all those in that noble profession) it’s a good time to buy, as the home-buyer tax credit has been extended to existing home owners who qualify and buy before the April 30 deadline.

            In fact, buyer activity increased during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, local Realtors say. Hopefully, that’s a sign of things to come.

            So now, a look back …

            On the Eastern Shore, the 4^th quarter of 2009 showed improvement in the number of sales, which rose to 183 compared with the 162 during the 4^th quarter of 2008, when the housing and banking crisis crested. Average sales price declined from $260,838 during the quarter last year to $230,117 this past quarter.

            For the year, the average sales price fell from $287,736 in 2008 to $237,020 in 2009.

            Fairhope: 64 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, up from 57 during the same time in 2008. Average price was $265,091, compared with $304,455 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 172 days to 211 days.

            For the year, 271 homes were sold, down from 293 in 2009. Average sales price dropped from $353,765 to $275,373 (not a typo). Days on market rose from 197 to 221.

            Daphne/Montrose: 72 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, nearly unchanged from the 69 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price increased from $248,922 to $250,140. Days on market rose from 166 to 176.

            During all of 2009, 303 homes were sold, compared to 321 in 2008. Average sales price was $238,999, down from $271,599 in 2008. Days on market stretched from 150 to 170.

            Lake Forest: 27 homes sold, up from 15 in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price dropped from $139,600 in the 4^th quarter of 2008 to $134,207 this last quarter. Days on market rose from 124 to 132.

            For the year, there were 104 sales, compared to 99 in 2008. Average price dropped from $157,355 in 2008 to $142,757 in 2009. Days on market decreased from 159 to 141.

            Spanish Fort: 20 homes sold in this past quarter, again almost unchanged from the 21 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price went from $268,198 to $175,594 (not a typo). Days on market decreased from 130 to 114.

            In 2008, 125 homes were sold vs. 120 in 2008. Average price dropped from $277,245 to $227,496. Days on market rose from 140 to 149.

            Inventory: Here are the current homes on market

            Spanish Fort: 155

            Daphne/Montrose: 362

            Fairhope: 523

            Lake Forest

: 104

 

 

 

December 2009 home sale statistics

            Home sales on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay proved to be weak in December, as sales declined to 56 compared to 65 in November.

            A poll of Realtors by the National Association of Realtors predicted a lull during the holidays and that was borne out in the statistics. Locally, however, the end-of-year season is usually second only to the April-May rush in sales in the area between Spanish Fort and Point Clear.

            However, local Realtors report an uptick in buyer inquiries and showings in the last weeks of 2008. Hopefully, that will result in transactions in 2010. For now, pending sales are down slightly from 110 during the first week in December, 2009, to 101 on January 7.

           

  

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,144
Spanish Fort: 155
Daphne: 362     
Fairhope: 523
Lake Forest: 104
 
Pending sales
Total: 101 (26 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 20

Daphne: 45
Fairhope: 24
Lake Forest: 12
 
 
Closed sales for December 2009
Total: 56
Average sales price: $302, 814, a tremendous increase over $192,968 in November that can be attributed to a $1.75 million sale on Mobile Bay in Daphne and a $2.3 million sale in Fairhope.

Median sales price: $188,041, up from $182,801 in November.
List to sale percentage: 94.47%, down from 95.96% in November

Spanish Fort: 5
Daphne: 23
Fairhope: 21
Lake Forest: 7
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

 

 

 

 

November 2009 home sales for the Eastern Shore of Mobile Metro area

Home sales improved slightly in November, with 65 properties sold compared with 59 in October.

New construction (most selling between $180,000 and $200,000) accounted for 37% of all the sales on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, metro area.

For the price-per-square-foot fans, the average in new construction sales was $98.76 a square foot; the low, $77.94; and the high, $126.60. These numbers are significant as an indicator of what sellers of existing homes could hope to sell for, particularly in neighborhoods with competing new construction.

The appeal of new construction is not new, but with the home-buyer tax credit initially targeting first-time buyers who are often younger buyers, the attraction of "new" is even stronger. In fact, Move.com reported in November that a survey shows 5 percent expect to buy a home in 2010 and those buyers are also most likely to be 34 years and younger.

On the Eastern Shore, new construction incentives sometimes include generous closing cost assistance for buyers, upgrade packages (fences and the like) and selling incentives to Realtors.

All of this makes it more difficult for existing home-sellers to compete for sales.

Mortgage interest rates remain low - below 5 percent.

However, recently announced proposed changes at the Federal Housing Administration may impact the market. FHA loans accounted for 3% of loans in 2006, but now have been used by 30% of borrowers as conventional mortgage credit standards have tightened. Also, FHA loans currently require only 3.5 percent down, a figure that's attractive to home-buyers who suffered financial losses in the market crash.

Walking a fine line between helping the housing market and protecting the viability of the FHA, the Obama administration has proposed but not yet adopted:

• Requiring more money down
• Limiting seller-paid closing costs to 3 percent instead of the present 6 percent
• Increasing the mortgage insurance premium

FHA loans are limited to $285,000 in Baldwin County.

There are other changes expected in January that will affect the duration of time between contract and closing and the viability of some mortgage brokers (as opposed to lenders and banks) to approve loans.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,218
Spanish Fort: 164
Daphne: 381
Fairhope: 549
Lake Forest: 124
 
Pending sales
Total:  110 (39 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 17

Daphne: 49
Fairhope: 32
Lake Forest: 12
 
 
Closed sales for November 2009
Total: 65
Average sales price: $192,968, down from $204,107 in October, $233,867 in September and $263,997 in August.
Median sales price: $$182,801, up from $179,900 in October, but down from $184,900 in September.
List to sale percentage: 95.96%, down from 96.82% in October and 96.19% in September
Spanish Fort: 9
Daphne: 26
Fairhope: 18
Lake Forest: 12
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

 

 

 

October, 2009 home sales for the Eastern Shore of Mobile

 

The upcoming expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit likely lead to a reduction in home sales in October on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, metro area.

Home sales fell from 87 in September to 59 in October in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope.

The first-time homebuyer tax credit of $8,000 was set to expire Nov. 30 and buyers apparently wanted to make that deadline with plenty of time to spare. Other buyers may have been waiting to see what would happen next.

At this writing, the U.S. Senate is poised to extend that credit through April 2010 and expand it to people with a $6,500 credit to people who have owned their home at least 5 of the last 8 years (income limits apply). With Senate passage, the bill is expected to be expedited through the house and to President Obama’s desk for signing.

Pending sales have improved slightly from 128 at the first of September to 140.

 

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,235
Spanish Fort: 150
Daphne: 400
Fairhope: 560
Lake Forest: 125
 
Pending sales
Total: 140 (38% new construction)
Spanish Fort: 24 (including 15 new homes)
Daphne: 60 (including 32 new homes)
Fairhope: 37 (including 6 new homes
Lake Forest: 19 (none new)
 
 
Closed sales for October 2009
Total: 59
Average sales price: $204,107, down from $233,867 in September and $263,997 in August.
Median sales price: $179,900, down from $184,900in September.
List to sale percentage: 96.82%, an improvement over 96.19% in September
Spanish Fort: 6
Daphne: 21
Fairhope: 24
Lake Forest: 8
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

 

If I can help you with any of your home needs, please feel free to call or email.

 

Janet English

251 591-2411

 

 

Pace of home sales continues to improve

  A year after the 2008 financial meltdown, let’s take stock of the correction in home prices on the Eastern Shore.

■ The number of homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2009 was only 6% behind home sales in the 3rd quarter of 2008.

■ Average sales price this past quarter was $243,176 – 19% lower than the average sales price of $298,947 a year ago.

The first statistic shows that the market is stabilizing in one respect.

A year ago, home sales between Spanish Fort and Point Clear fell off a cliff. Last summer 128 homes sold in June and another 135 in July. Then came August 2008 with only 84 sales, a 40 percent drop in the number of homes sold.

That we are only 6% behind the third quarter of 2008 demonstrates the difficult and momentous shift in attitudes toward home prices. Because home sales involve so many people – lenders, insurers, builders and their suppliers, tradesmen, Realtors, home inspectors, appraisers, movers, furnishers, etc. – they are essential to stable economy, despite the falling prices.

Locally, home prices continue to decline. Nationally, the rate of decline slowed for a sixth straight month, according to the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index.           Looking at these 20 major metro markets, the index noted a better-than-expected 13.3% decline compared to a year ago. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said: "These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values."

On the Eastern Shore, 569 price reductions were made on homes in the 3rd quarter; there are 1,209 properties listed.

On to the stats:

Overall, the pace of sales continues to improve, from 157 sales in the 1st quarter, to 207 in the 2nd quarter to 248 in the 3rd quarter, including 29 foreclosures or short sales (pre-foreclosures).            The average time it took to sell was 179 days, a figured skewed by the fact that many properties had already gone through a previous listing.

Fairhope/Point Clear: 78 homes sold, compared with 98 a year ago this time and 70 during the 2nd quarter 2009. Average sales price was $300,699, down from $359,262 a year ago and but up from $284,033 in the 2nd quarter. (The sales of three homes over $1.7 million helped boost this quarter’s average.) Average time it took to sell: 202 days. There are 562 houses on the market here.

Daphne/Montrose: 107 homes sold compared with 105 sales a year ago, and up from 73 sales the 2nd quarter. Average price was $231,746, down from $289,832 a year ago and $243,600 in the 2nd quarter. Average days on market: 167. There are 373 homes for sale.

Lake Forest: 28 homes sold, exactly the same as a year ago and up slightly from the 25 that sold in the 2nd quarter. Average sales price was $150,107, compared to $153,965 a year ago and $145,680 in the 2nd quarter. Average days on market: 137. There are 134 homes for sale here.

Spanish Fort: 36 homes sold, compared with 34 a year ago and 39 in the 2nd quarter. Average price was $224,392 vs. $272,853 a year ago and $255,977 in the 2nd quarter. Market time averaged 178 days. There are 140 homes for sale.

September 2009 home sales statistics for Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope

Home sales in the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, metro area improved ever so slightly in September, with 87 sales, compared to 82 sales in August.

Pending sales dropped from 158 during the first week of September to 128 during the first week of October in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope/Point Clear. In typical years – and this is not a typical year – home sales slow during the back-to-school season and pick up again in late October. Whether there will be a last minute rush of buyers trying to qualify for the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit that expires Nov. 30, is anybody’s guess.

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,211
Spanish Fort: 139
Daphne: 375
Fairhope: 569
Lake Forest: 123
 
Pending sales
Total: 128
Spanish Fort: 19
Daphne: 60
Fairhope: 35
Lake Forest: 14
 
 
Closed sales for September 2009
Total: 87
Average sales price: $233,867, down from $263,997 in August.
Median sales price: $184,900, down from $187,450 in July
List to sale percentage: 96.19%
Spanish Fort: 13
Daphne: 46
Fairhope: 21
Lake Forest: 7
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

What a difference a year makes: August 2009 home sales

A year ago, home sales on the Eastern Shore fell off a cliff. Then they tumbled even further, apparently hitting bottom in the early spring.

But that month – August 2008 – showed a breath-taking 40 percent decline in the number of houses sold between Spanish Fort and Point Clear on the Eastern Shore the Mobile Metro area. To demonstrate: 128 homes sold in June 2008 and another 135 sold in July. Then came August, 2008, with only 84 sales.

Even with anemic sales, the average sales price was $303,576 and the median was $249,250.

Now, a year later, the average sales price was $263,997 and the median was $187,450, a reflection of the extreme correction in housing prices, as well as what type of house is selling.

But a year ago, only a little more than a hundred houses were under contract. Now, 158 are in the process of closing, a 34 percent increase over the year, and certainly a hopeful sign.

Total sales are virtually unchanged from a year ago with 82 closed last month.

Still,  more than 200 price adjustments were made by homeowners last month.

Foreclosures and short sales (distressed homeowners who owe more than their houses are now worth) represent 4% of listed properties, yet they are 15% of August ‘09 sales and 10% of houses under contract. The lure of a possible deal is as strong as ever, putting price pressure on everyone who is trying to sell.

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in August, 2009:
Total houses for sale: 1,195
Spanish Fort: 137
Daphne: 366
Fairhope: 569
Lake Forest: 123
 
Pending sales
Total: 158
Spanish Fort: 26
Daphne: 75
Fairhope: 41
Lake Forest: 16
 
 
Closed sales for August 2009
Total: 82
Average sales price: $263,997, up from $262,616 in July.
Median sales price: $187,450, down from $204,500 in July
List to sale percentage: 96.56%
Spanish Fort: 11
Daphne: 38
Fairhope: 23
Lake Forest: 10
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

July 2009 home sales, pendings show stability, except in pricing

Home sales statistics on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area continue to show signs of a stabilizing market, though Realtors generally believe home prices continue to fall.

Both home sales and pending sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope/Point Clear showed slight increases over June, 2009. Yet, 20 percent of home sellers reduced prices in July alone to move property.

Seventy-six homes sold in July, up from 73 that sold in June. Pending sales remain encouraging with 162 single-family residences under contract, up from 157 in June. There was a little erosion in the list-to-sale percentage which fell from 96.21% in June to 95.88% in July.

 
 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in July, 2009:
Total houses for sale: 1,214
Spanish Fort: 147
Daphne: 372
Fairhope: 562
Lake Forest: 133
 
Pending sales
Total: 162
Spanish Fort: 23
Daphne: 81
Fairhope: 43
Lake Forest: 15
 
 
Closed sales for July 2009
Total: 76
Average sales price: $262,616, up from $252,497 in June, but down from $265,549 in May.
Median sales price: $204,500, down from $211,400 in June and $225,000 in May
List to sale percentage: 95.88%
Spanish Fort: 10
Daphne: 23
Fairhope: 32
Lake Forest: 11
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

Bumping along what may be the bottom

July 2009 home sale statistics for Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope, Alabama

 Want some good news? The number of homes sold on the Eastern Shore increased 24 percent in the 2nd quarter compared with the 1st quarter.

Priced right for today’s market, homes will sell.

Looking at month-by-month sales, it seems that we are bumping along what I hope is the bottom.

Between Spanish Fort and Point Clear, 207 homes sold this past quarter, compared to 157 sales in the 1st quarter of 2009 and 227 sales this time last year. The average sales price was $247,779 this quarter, up from of $223,575 in the first quarter, but down from $301,631 this time last year.

Foreclosures (15) and short sales (2), were among this quarter’s sales. And judging by public records listings, there will continue to be distressed properties reaching the market.

The average time it took to sell a home this quarter was 198 days.

Although the average sale prices improved since the 1st quarter, that reflects what is selling.

Make no mistake: Prices are falling. But keep this next fact in mind when you look at these numbers: The upper-end market, over $300,000, remains very slow and represented only about 25% of this quarter’s sales. Yet almost half of all homes for sale on the Eastern Shore are priced at $300,000 or more.

On to the stats:

Fairhope: 70 homes sold, up from 59 in the 1st quarter, and not so far off from the 76 that sold this time last year. Average sales price was $284,033, up from $242,771 in the 1st quarter. This time last year the average sale price was $415,410. That is not a typo. That was in fact the market’s peak.

The Fairhope market has been hard hit in a multitude of ways:

■ It was always pricey compared to other areas

■ The high-priced waterfront market has been struggling for several years, particularly with the scarcity and pricing of home owners insurance.

■ The retiree market has been hit as hard as many retirees’ portfolios

■Traffic and commute times to Interstate 10 have increased

■ Fairhope has prided itself for resisting major retailers, so buyers who want to be close to major retail and all the restaurants and cinemas that go with it, choose other communities.

There are 598 houses on the market in Fairhope.

Daphne/Montrose: 73 homes sold, a healthy increase from the 47 last quarter and the 65 that sold this time last year. Average sales price was $243,600, up from $237,409 in the first quarter. Average sales price was $311,085 this time last year. It took on average 200 days to sell. There are 375 homes on the market here.

Lake Forest: 25 houses sold here, virtually unchanged from the 24 in the 1st quarter, but down from the 40 that sold this time last year. Average sale price was $145,680, up slightly from $140,756 in the 1st quarter, but down from $165,105 this time last year. It took 152 days to sell on average. 129 homes are for sale

Spanish Fort: 39 homes sold, up from 27 in the 1st quarter and almost equal to the 40 sold this time last year. Average sale price was $255,977, up from $231,161 in the 1st quarter, but down from $268,372 in the 2nd quarter of 2008. Average time it took to sell: 135 days. There are 145 houses on the market.

June 2009 home sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope, Alabama

June home sales dipped slightly but pending sales and the list-to-sale percentage show that the market may be stabilizing.
Seventy-three homes sold in June on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area, down from the 77 sales in May in the area encompassing Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope/Point Clear.
Pending sales increased from 136 in the first week of June to 157 as of July 8, 2009. Sellers also got on average 96.21% of the list price in June, compared with 95.89% in May.
 
 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in June, 2009:
Total houses for sale: 1,251
Spanish Fort: 148
Daphne: 377
Fairhope: 600
Lake Forest: 126
 
Pending sales
Total: 157
Spanish Fort: 28
Daphne: 69
Fairhope: 42
Lake Forest: 18
 
 
Closed sales for June 2009
Total: 73
Average sales price: $252,497, down from $265,549 in May.
Median sales price: $211,400, down from $225,000 in May
List to sale percentage: 96.21%
Spanish Fort: 12
Daphne: 28
Fairhope: 23
Lake Forest: 10
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service

May 2009 home sales up 22 percent on Eastern Shore of Mobile, Alabama

May home sales increased 22 percent over April on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area.

This typical seasonal bump of 77 homes sold was still some 15 percent lower than sales in May 2008 when 91 houses closed. However, it was better than April’s 53 sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne/Lake Forest and Fairhope/Point Clear.

Pending sales have declined slightly with 136 homes under contract, compared to 143 under contract this time last month.

Average sales price and median sales price both rose significantly. But this reflects the type of home selling, not that home prices are increasing across the board. In fact, May marks a milestone: The first and only home over $1 million to close on the Eastern Shore this entire year closed in May.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in May, 2009:

Total houses for sale: 1,240

Spanish Fort: 141

Daphne: 372

Fairhope: 596

Lake Forest: 137

Pending sales

Total: 136

Spanish Fort: 26

Daphne: 61

Fairhope: 34

Lake Forest: 15

Closed sales for May 2009

Total: 77

Average sales price: $265,549, up from $217,849 in April.

Median sales price: $225,000, up from $206,563 in April

List to sale percentage: 95.89%

Spanish Fort: 18

Daphne: 22

Fairhope: 26

Lake Forest: 8

(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

April 2009 home sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope

Pending home sales increased in the last half of April on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area.

Overall, home sales declined in April to 53 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear, showing that the housing market is still bobbing through choppy waters. To demonstrate the crests and troughs in sold stats:

January: 40

February: 54

March: 60

Expect better stats in May, with 143 homes under contract in this area, up from the 108 homes that were pending the first part of April. Still, there is a 22-month supply of homes at the current selling rate.

Only 35% of the homes under contract are more than $250,000, while this price range makes up 58% of the homes on the market on the Eastern Shore.

 

 

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in April, 2009:

Total houses for sale: 1,210

Spanish Fort: 138

Daphne: 358

Fairhope: 578

Lake Forest: 136

 

Pending sales

Total: 143

Spanish Fort: 35

Daphne: 57

Fairhope: 34

Lake Forest: 17

 

 

Closed sales for March 2009

Total: 53

Average sales price: $217,849, down again from $234,084 in March.

Median sales price: $187,000, down from $206,563 in March

List to sale percentage: 95.49%

Spanish Fort: 9

Daphne: 18

Fairhope: 20

Lake Forest: 6

 

(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

 

  The new reality in home prices

March, 2009

 March 2009 home sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope

March homes sales on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay rose again to 60 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear in January, compared to 54 in February and 40 in January.

Buyers are looking, but that’s not materializing into a strong increase in pending sales. As of April 7, 108 homes are under contract, compared to 92 last month and 102 in January.

As the reality of the housing market correction sinks in, over 590 price adjustments -- a few up but most down -- were made in March. Inventory increased to 1,190 homes for sale, up from 1,129 in February.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in March, 2009:

Total houses for sale: 1,190

Spanish Fort: 134

Daphne: 364

Fairhope: 561

Lake Forest: 131

Pending sales

Total: 108

Spanish Fort: 26

Daphne: 43

Fairhope: 28

Lake Forest: 11

Closed sales for March 2009

Total: 60

Average sales price: $234,084, a healthy increase from $208,019 in February, but much lower than the average in March of last year of $290

Median sales price: $206, 563, another increase from February’s $179,950, but again down from March ‘08’s $231,750

List to sale percentage: 94.44%

Spanish Fort: 9

Daphne: 18

Fairhope: 24

Lake Forest: 9

(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

We may have hit bottom in November, 2008

2008? Whew! Glad that’s over.

2009? At least we know what we’re dealing with.Here’s a backward look on a sorry year in real estate, and a forward look in which I will stick my neck out.2008: ■ Twenty-four percent fewer homes sold than in 2007 from Spanish Fort to Point Clear.■ Foreclosures, short sales and distress sales (essentially pre-foreclosures) captured buyers’ attention.■ On the Eastern Shore, the average sales price was down only 1% from the previous year and the median sales price was down just 6%. But it didn’t feel that way, and a late-year statistic proved the point: In December, sellers took on average 8% off the list price to move their homes.

2009:

■ Interest rates have already dropped after the Fed unveiled a plan to buy $500 billion in mortgage securities and debt. For just a few hours one day in December, the rate hit 4.25%. The drop has triggered a new refinancing boom and hopefully will spill over into home sales.

■ Business Week magazine predicts the market has hit bottom, but prices will remain weak through the end of 2009. It cites the large inventory of houses as a negative and predicts potential sellers who have been sitting on the fence will put their homes on the market at the first sign of improvement, leading to more inventory.

Locally, November was the worst month for sales (only 47 on the Eastern Shore), mirroring sales the month after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. I agree – and hope – we’ve hit bottom in terms of the number of sales.

■ There’s a lot of pent-up demand. Marriage, divorce, new babies, retirement: Think about everyone who had a housing need that they didn’t act on in 2008. This year may be their year.

■ Finally, a couple of opinions: Houses with great prices, and great houses, will sell, as always. If you’re considering buying up or down, why wait? You may get less for your present house, but you will probably pay less for your new one, and the interest rate will be very attractive.

On to the stats:Fourth quarter sales on the Eastern Shore registered a yearly low. Only 162 sold, compared with 265 in the third quarter. Average sales price was $260,838, with sellers taking on average 6% off the list price to sell. Average days on market were 162.      For the year, 833 homes sold, compared to 1,092 in 2007. Average sales price declined slightly from $292,091 to $287,736. The time it took to sell lengthened from 144 days in 2007 to 166 days in 2008. (Note: Both figures were skewed by houses being re-listed.)

  Fairhope: 57 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 68 during the same time in 2007. Average price was $304,455, compared with $356,772 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 157 days to 172 days.

For the year, 293 homes sold, compared with 400 sales in 2007. Average prices actually rose from $339,028 in 2007 to $353,765. Days on market rose from 162 to 197.

  Daphne/Montrose: 69 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 58 in the 4th quarter of 2007. Average sales price declined to $248,922, from $258,273 at the same time in 2007. Days on market rose from 153 to 166.

During all of 2008, 321 homes sold, compared with 394 in 2007. Average sales price was $271,599, down from $295,486 for all of 2007. Days on market stretched from 141 to 150.

  Lake Forest: 15 homes sold, compared with 25 sales in the 4th quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $162,768 to $139,600. Days on market lengthened from 101 days to 124 days.

For the whole of the year, 99 homes sold, compared with 114 in 2007. Average prices dropped from $170,930 to $157,355 in 2008. Days on market rose from 110 to 159.

  Spanish Fort: 21 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 33 during the last quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $304,803 to $268,198 in 2008. The time it took to sell was virtually unchanged at about 130 days.

In 2008, 120 homes sold vs. 145 in 2007. Average sales price dropped from $281,232 to $277,245. The days on market stretched from 123 days to 140 days.

  Inventory: As of Jan. 8, there were 1,082 homes on the market on the Eastern Shore.

■ Spanish Fort: 118

■ Daphne/Montrose: 328

■ Fairhope: 502

■ Lake Forest: 134.

If you have specific questions about your home’s value, feel free to call or email.

  Data is from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service.

 Eastern Shore market report for October, 2008 The last time the Eastern Shore home sales market was this slow was October, 2001, the month after 9/11 attacks on the United States.Home sales in October 2008 dropped again to only 53 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear. This follows the home sales peak of 135 sales in July, then a decline to 84 in August and 71 in September.Pending sales have also fallen to just 87 homes under contract to sell.While disappointing, this is not surprising as that nation was spellbound by the erratic spiral downward of the stock market, coupled with the last month of presidential politicking.Inventory continues to slide slightly from a peak around 1,300 this summer to 1,183 for sale on Nov. 6.Today, interest rates are reacting to market news and are entrenched above 6% locally.  Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in October:Total houses for sale: 1,183Spanish Fort: 133Daphne: 350Fairhope: 577Lake Forest: 123 Pending salesTotal: 87Spanish Fort: 20Daphne: 26Fairhope: 29Lake Forest: 12  Closed sales for October 2008Total: 53Average sales price: $240,565Median sales price: $217,000List to sale percentage: 94.96% (down from 96.92% in July)Spanish Fort: 8Daphne: 24Fairhope: 20Lake Forest: 1   October, 2007: Number of homes sold down 10% on Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay   I bet you want to know if the sky is really falling.It sure seems like it if you watch the national news.  You have your subprime mortgage meltdown. Your housing market meltdown. Your global market meltdown.  So what’s it like on the Eastern Shore?  The number of homes sold since the first of 2007 is down 10% compared with the first nine months of 2006. And the first nine months of 2006 were down 20% over the same period in 2005. (But don’t forget that ‘05 and ‘06 were energetic years for our Eastern Shore market as hurricane-wary buyers looked to inland areas of the coast.)  Average sales price crept up 2% during the first nine months of this year to $292,932. In the third quarter, it was up about 1.5% to $292,433, compared to the third quarter of 2006.  The number of homes sold between July 1 and Sept. 30 fell 10% compared to the same time last year.  And some 350 homes failed to sell with their listings expiring since the first of this year. Sellers are getting with the program though, as around 140 made price adjustments in September alone.  The number of houses on the market, particularly in Fairhope, continues to be cause for concern. Overall on the Eastern Shore, there are 1,114 homes for sale.  Foreclosures continue to rise as many owners didn’t fully take into account their financial risks and the changes that life brings. (See my accompanying story.)  Mortgage lenders are so much more cautious in approving loans that they are nit-picking a buyer’s financial background to death. All of this leads to some nail-biters when waiting for the “clear to close,” as it’s called.  And some Realtors who got into the profession during the high times are getting out.  But remember this: It’s also getting to be a good time to buy because you have low mortgage rates and lots to choose from.  So here are the stats:►Fairhope: 105 homes sold here, virtually unchanged from the 109 in the 3rd quarter of 2006. Average sales price was $351,337, up from $317,305. The average time it took to sell stretched to 166 days vs. 134 days last year. The list to sale percentage was 95%, the weakest of any Eastern Shore area. There are 547 homes on the market here.►Daphne/Montrose: 113 homes sold, compared to 133 homes this time last year. Average sales price was $298,274, up from $274,111. Average days on market: 158 this quarter compared to 117 during the 3rd quarter of 2006. List to sale percentage: 97.63%. There are 341 homes on the market.►Lake Forest: 38 homes sold, up from 35 this time last year. Average sales price dropped from $180,860 to $175,556. List to sale percentage: 97.49%. Market time increased from 70 days to 125 days. There are 116 homes on the market.►Spanish Fort: 35 homes sold, down from 49 in the 3rd quarter of 2006. Average sales price dropped from $292,580 to $284,986. List to sale percentage: 95.58. It took 105 days to sell this quarter, down from 114 days this time last year. There are 110 homes on the market. Janet English, RE/Max By the Bay  Wealth, Risk and Change: How we got to where we are Frequently someone asks: “Where is all the money coming from to buy these high-priced houses? You can’t tell me we’ve got a bunch of people making $300,000 a year.”  No, I don’t know what these people earn.  But I can tell you where the money is coming from, what the risks are and why change is an inevitable but frequently ignored factor in home buying.  High-end home buyers generally have several sources of money, if they are not making a gazillion dollars to start with.  Inheritance: These buyers often don’t come from what we’d think of as moneyed families. They simply have inherited a family property that was paid for – maybe their parents’ modest $100,000 ranch-style home -- and they use the proceeds to purchase their next home.  Savvy home investors: These are the folks who regard one home as a means to the next. They get in on the ground floor of a subdivision and once it’s built out and the prices have risen, they sell and move on to the next. Perhaps they even build the home themselves. Their goal is to own their home outright and they will move every few years to achieve this.   Leveraged buyers: They use their investments and earnings to qualify for either the low-interest fixed rate loans or the riskier adjustable rate mortgages in order to buy the house of their dreams. The idea is to keep their money in investments where the rate of return is higher than the mortgage interest rate. They don’t put much money down.  Here’s how it works: If the stock market is paying 10% interest on investments, and the mortgage interest rate is only 5.5% then leave your money in the investment with the higher rate.Meanwhile, put 10% down on the house. Get a first mortgage of 80% and a second mortgage of 10%.  Leverage buyers in many respects are what has happened to real estate market throughout the nation. These are not the subprime buyers, although they have one thing in common with them: little to none of their own money in the home.  Change is what happens in life: A spouse dies; a spouse leaves. You get laid off. You get transferred. A new baby arrives. An old baby goes to college. And you want to sell your home. If you don’t have any of your own money in it (also called equity), then you have to hope that the house appreciated enough that you can pay your costs of getting out of it.   When the interest rate stayed around 5%, everyone and their brother encouraged everyone and their brother to buy as much house as they could possibly buy. “We’ll never see the interest rate that low again,” they said. A true statement. Some buyers were poorly advised by their lenders; some were just poorly advised, chasing homes beyond their means. So here we are and life has changed. The national market has flattened out, in some areas with zero to negative appreciation. It has spread with the cascading effects of too many houses on the market and too few buyers who can get a loan from the skittish mortgage lenders.   Homeowners living paycheck to paycheck have no money in the house and no money in reserve to pay for everything involved in selling the house.  Other owners owe so much on the house – either because of their first and second mortgages or the home equity line of credit – that they find it painful to part with cash in other investments to get out of the house. Sorry, but typically you can only enjoy the equity line or zero down once. (You can only milk the cow once … You can’t have your cake and eat it too).  And for the people who bought those huge houses, I would advise you to look ahead. Right now The Fed has helped with interest rates. But what if the rate goes up to 9%? How many people will be able to afford your $750,000 home? And what happens as our population ages and people typically downsize?  Things change. Try to be ready. Dark Cloud on Horizon: Rising Insurance Costs
July 2007
Ahh, July 3; and my family has just gotten back from a vacation that WASN´T cancelled by a hurricane. Our history of hurricanes and vacations began with our wedding in 1985 when a devilish hurricane by the name of Elena, went west, then east and then west.  So we started our freshly minted marriage, evacuating four hotels in 24 hours.One newspaper account of the time cited this storm as causing the largest peace-time evacuation in U.S. history. We´ll we know that stat has long been surpassed.  And with it, there is a byproduct that threatens the Gulf South housing market: the ability to obtain and afford homeowner´s insurance.  While the evidence is largely anecdotal, rising homeowners insurance costs are factoring into a home-selling market that remains somewhat sluggish.  On the Eastern Shore, we are fortunate. Home-selling on the Mississippi Gulf Coast is abysmal. One Realtor told me that Ocean Springs alone has a 15 month inventory of homes for sale. New Orleans has its own complex issues, but now is seeing its real estate market sputter.  Here are a few examples of how insurance issues are affecting us:?Last year I paid $2,374 in premiums on my home in Spanish Fort; this year I will pay $3,150.?My parents´ home in Gulfport, 2 miles from the beach but flooded in Katrina, now has three different policies: regular homeowners (euphemistically called fire insurance because that´s about all it covers); flood insurance; and a state wind and hail policy.?Callers to WWL radio in New Orleans recently reported insurance hikes of 200 and 300 percent in their South Louisiana neighborhoods.  And this issue is not confined to the Gulf South. It stretches up the New England coastline and west through Texas.  The sentiment seems to be that homeowners are grateful to simply have insurance.  But if the trend continues, coastal areas like ours will increasingly be only for the affluent.  Basically, we of the Gulf South have two choices: get used to it, or lobby for reform or relief.  As recently reported in the Mobile Press-Register, Gov. Bob Riley and some Alabama legislators are at odds over the lack of attention, much less progress, to address this insurance crisis. Meanwhile, our neighbors on each side ? Florida, Mississippi and Louisiana ? have their politicians in a dogfight with insurers.  In all likelihood, it will take national reforms for homeowners´ insurance to be equitable and make sense. And I doubt that will happen until the premiums go up inside Washington´s Beltway.--   The number of homes sold in the 2nd quarter of 2007 on the Eastern Shore fell 15 percent, while average sale prices rose 5 percent over the last year.  331 homes sold with an average price of $308,019, compared with 391 homes sold with an average sales price of $291,401 during the 2nd quarter of 2006.  Inventory continues to creep up, with 1,080 homes on the market.  The Eastern Shore market picture continues to be somewhat skewed by a very bloated Fairhope market. This area has shown the greatest signs of weakness with more than half of all the inventory for sale (562 homes) and the highest average list price for housing ($525,429).  Fairhope/Point Clear: 124 homes sold in the 2nd quarter, compared with 140 this time last year. Average sales price rose to $346,400, compared with $317,543 last year. Average time it took to sell: 170 days.  Daphne/Montrose: 121 homes sold in the last quarter, compared with 162 this time last year. Average sales price rose from $278,795 to $323,424, largely because of pricey new construction. It took on average 140 days to sell here. There are 314 homes on the market in Daphne/Montrose (up slightly from 299 this time last year), with an average list price of $405,250.  Lake Forest: 36 homes sold, compared with 32 home sales this time last year. Average sales price rose from $162,345 in the 2nd quarter of 2006 to $174,769 in the 2nd quarter of 2007. Average time on the market: 78 days. Inventory is up in Lake Forest, from only 40 homes for sale this time last year to 104 homes for sale, with an average list price of $187,381.  Spanish Fort: 50 homes sold vs. 56 this time last year. Average sales price fell from $336,258 to $274,173. While 22 of the homes that sold were under $250,000, that will not completely account for the drop in the average sales price. This market is moderating price-wise. It took on average 125 days to sell here. There are currently 100 homes on the market, up from 58 this time last year, and the average list price is $349,920.   

Tip O´Neill once said: All politics is local.  Such is true right now with real estate. National coverage of the housing market´s ups and downs paints a broad picture.  But real estate issues that may affect you are local.  "How´s business," I´ve been asked repeatedly. And before I can get the answer out, the questioner volunteers, "Slow, huh?"  Actually, I´m slammed.  So let´s get to what´s going on in the local market.?Inventory is at an all-time high between Spanish Fort and Point Clear. More than 1,000 homes on the market is cause for concern, but it´s also the product of this area´s growth. Right now, the inventory has helped to increase the time needed to sell a home.?The days of speculative pricing are all but over. Offers presented by buyers´ agents are relying on comparable sold statistics and sellers are negotiating accordingly.?Whether it´s a buyers´ market or not depends on where the home is located and its price. There are soft markets here and soft price ranges.?Two-thirds of the houses sold on the Eastern Shore in the 1st quarter of 2007 were for prices under $300,000. But slightly more than half of the 1,050 homes listed at present are offered at prices exceeding $300,000. And of those 544 homes listed at over $300,000, 188 are new construction.? After a slow 4th quarter in 2006 and a somewhat improved 1st quarter in 2007, the market seems to be turning around. For example, there were 256 sales in the 1st quarter of 2007. But there are already 180 houses under contract right now and waiting to close.?Two national trends will continue to affect local home buyers in the coming months: tightening of mortgage qualification restrictions because of the number of loan defaults and the availability of homeowner insurance, particularly for older homes. Zero-down, no-document loans may already be a thing of the past. And national insurers are continuing to raise rates, raise hurricane deductibles and shut out segments of the market (try getting insurance for a home built prior to 1994 in Daphne or Fairhope).  On to the 1st quarter stats:  Fairhope/Point Clear: 87 homes sold with an average sales price of $331,707. This time last year, Fairhope had 118 sales with an average price of $340,131. Average time it took to sell: 156 days.  Fairhope is the weakest of the four areas covered here, with the only declining average sales price, and an inventory now at 547 homes, up from 334 this time last year.  Daphne/Montrose: 97 homes sold here in the 1st quarter vs. 104 homes in the same time last year. Average sales price rose from $265,016 to $272,256. Average time it took to sell: 127 days. There are 317 homes on the market.  Lake Forest: Much improved over the 1st quarter of 2006 when only 21 homes sold, Lake Forest had 44 homes sell, with an average price of $170,304, up from $157,703 during the same period in 2006. It took on average 122 days to sell and there are 93 homes on the market.  Spanish Fort: Only 28 homes sold in the 1st quarter, down from 39 homes in the 1st quarter of 2005 and 2006. Average sales price rose from $259,370 this time last year to $282,572. 

Number of homes sold down 20% in 2006
January 2007

Yikes, you have to sell a house! What do you DO?You call me and we´ll sell it.  The sky is not falling yet in the Eastern Shore housing market. The number of sales is down 20 percent since this time last year, but the average sales price has risen from $248,272 to $289,935.  Our inventory is up. Certainly, houses must be priced competitively to sell and that means that sellers may not get what they would have gotten in the last couple of calamitous hurricane years. Most sellers won´t be losing money. They just won´t be selling at the high point.  I remember sellers really losing money in the late 1990s. One couple, through bad fortune or mismanagement, had to bring more than $9,000 to the closing table. While my buyers were inside, the seller/wife sat in the ditch outside the closing company, crying when she learned that the property owners´ association dues they hadn´t paid were being collected at closing, too. So, what did they do? They CHARGED it. All 9,000-plus dollars.  That is a tough situation.  To buy or sell in today´s market, you´ll need to compromise. Many buyers are waiting until home prices are more competitive or they find the absolutely perfect ? and I mean a fit like white on rice ? house. I know that because I´m showing houses to people who are renting and waiting to buy.A few other observations:? If you hope to move in the summer of 2007, then you´ll need to put your house on the market soon. The average time it takes to sell is back to 4 or 5 months.? Interest rates remain competitive at less than 6 percent at this writing.? Inventory went down during the last quarter of 2006, falling from 970 to around 860 at year´s end. But it´s rising rapidly as we move into our prime selling season. (Year-end is the second hottest season for buying and selling.)? The National Association of Realtors reports that its Pending Home Sales Index shows that the national housing market is stabilizing and its chief economist says that "home sales likely bottomed out in September.´´ ? Home pricing needs to be realistic. When you look at the following stats, you will see the jump in average sale prices in the past year. Ask yourself: Could I afford to buy in this area if I moved here again?  On to the stats:? Fairhope: 84 homes sold in the 4th quarter of 2006, with an average sale price of $364,138. That´s down from 116 during the 4th quarter of 2005, with an average price of $300,629.  For the year, 449 homes sold with an average price of $333,255, compared to 596 homes sold in 2005 with an average price of $297,589.  Houses sold in 127 days on average during 2006, but stretched to 153 days in the 4th quarter of 2006.  Fairhope has been the softest market since the market correction started. There are 459 houses on the market here.? Daphne: 107 homes sold in the past quarter, with an average price of $301,615. That´s down from the 130 homes that sold in the last quarter of 2005 with an average price of $259,740.  In 2006, 515 homes sold with an average price of $286,259; last year 540  homes sold with an average price of $241,042.   Average days on market in 2006 was 120 days, up from 115 days in 2005. There are 285 homes on sale here.?Lake Forest: 27 homes sold in the 4th quarter with an average price of $165,887; that, too is down from the 41 homes selling in the last quarter of 2005 ? average price: $149,846.  For the year, 147 homes sold, also down from the 255 homes sold in 2005. But like each of the other areas, the average sale price rose from $139,903 in 2005 to $167,548.In 2005, it took on average 90 days to sell; in 2006 it took on average 71 days. There are 70 homes on the market here.Spanish Fort: 30 homes sold this last quarter, with an average price of $246,774; that´s up from 25 homes sold in the last quarter of 2005 with an average price of $328,904.In all of 2006, 173 homes sold at an average of $291,773, compared to 183 homes in 2005 with an average price of $260,018. You´ll find 74 homes on the market here.  

  Let´s talk about this market.  First my credentials: A former member of the news media with 14 years in print journalism (married to a current member of the news media with 25+ years in print journalism); a full-time Realtor for 8 years; and a junky of both news and real estate.  As you have probably heard, existing home prices decreased for the first time in 11 years in August.  And housing inventories are high.  Here are the stats:? The nationwide median sales price fell 1.7%.? Existing home prices in the South fell 0.8%.  One news outlet began its story with the words, "The collapsing U.S. housing market crossed another milestone 3;"   Collapsing? "Moderating" is an infinitely better term at this point, particularly since the same story cites that prices have been rising at an annual rate of 7.5% over the past five years. That is 37.5% in five years, not to mention, compounded appreciation.  Market appreciation on the Eastern Shore ? from Spanish Fort to Point Clear ? was 13% in 2005 and prices rose 12.5% in 2004. That´s an easy 25.5% appreciation in two years.  Yes, there are negative signs out there in our market. But it still looks like a cooling vs. collapsing market.?  From Jan. 1 to Sept. 30, 2005, (in the months after Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina) 1,252 homes sold on the Eastern Shore with an average price of $242,865. During the first three quarters of 2006, 1,001 homes sold with an average price of $287,096.  List-to-sell percentages remained largely unchanged, as did the time it takes to sell a home.?The number of homes sold is down 20% in the first nine months of 2006. But the banner sales years of 2004 and 2005 were so influenced by Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina, it´s hard to distinguish between the storms´ effects and the housing market´s effects. ? Buyer activity is down, but that´s hard to quantify, other than in home sale statistics. Houses aren´t going under contract in a week. Buyers seem to come in waves (sellers have no showings for a couple of weeks and then three in a weekend).? The number of houses on the market here is our strongest negative indicator. The 970 houses on the market is reminiscent of 2000 and 2003. And the Fairhope market alone accounts for more than 500 of the homes for sale. But the Eastern Shore market has also grown in the last six years, in terms of new residential development, retail offerings and population, so greater inventory is to be expected.  There are challenges, to be sure. One is affordability. Have we  priced many people out of this market? Yes.   Local home-owners who want to stay in the area, but move into larger or smaller home, will find that all things are equal, the same forces are at work on the sale of their home as on the purchase of their next home. It was far more difficult to make such as move in 2004-05 because the competition for a home was so fierce. Some locals were discouraged from buying. Now, you have more time to make decisions and more homes to choose from.So, yes, if you wanted to sell at the market´s absolute peak, you may have missed it for now. But you can still enjoy the run-up in appreciation. It´s not bad. It´s just more normal.  On to the third quarter numbers: Lake Forest: Thirty-five homes sold during the quarter, down from 79 homes sold during in the Katrina quarter of 2005. Average sales price jumped from $138,759 to $180,860. The average time it took to sell a home in Lake Forest was 70 days this quarter vs. 90 days this time last year. There are currently 83 homes on the market.Daphne/Montrose:  This time last year, 163 homes sold. This quarter, it´s down to 133 homes. Average sales price is up, however, from $242,177 last year to $274,111. Average days on market rose slightly from 101 days to 117 days. There are 294 houses on the market here.Fairhope: This quarter, 109 homes sold, up every so slightly from 106 this time last year. Average sales price was $317,305, up from $287,639 in the third quarter of 2005. Average days on market: 134 vs. 121 this time last year. There are 507 homes on the market here.Spanish Fort: Forty-nine homes sold during the quarter, up from 39 a year ago. Average sales price was $292,580, up from $242,609. It took on average 114 days to sell here, virtually unchanged from 117 days a year ago. There are 69 houses on the market here. Signs point to more shifts in market
July 2006

You´ve seen the signs.You´ve seen the For Sale signs staying in the yards longer. You´ve seen the Open House signs, the Price Reduced signs, maybe even a few sign changes as houses failed to sell. Why?-- The number of houses for sale on the Eastern Shore has doubled since this time last year, rising from around 420 to about 820.-- Until recently, new home construction made up 25% of homes on the market and home sales. (Hey, you´ve seen those new signs, too 3; signs for new subdivisions, turning Paw-Paw´s Pea Patch into the American dream for yet another family.) This quarter, 38% of the homes on the market are new and 34% of all the homes sold are new.  This is yet another significant shift in a market that has been on a roller-coaster ride since the housing shortages created by hurricanes Ivan and Katrina.  Having more homes on the market is not a bad thing. It allows local residents the opportunity to move up into a larger home, for example.  But the balance between the number of new homes and existing homes may be cause for concern because new homes present hefty competition for  existing homes.  So the market has moderated, adjusted, settled and shifted. It´s not bad. Just different.  Take heart, fellow homeowners: You may have a much better location than those new houses sitting in Paw-Paw´s former Pea Patch.  Here are the numbers.  Home sales between Spanish Fort and Point Clear are down 11% since this time last year: 391 homes sold this quarter vs. 441 in the 2nd quarter of 2005. Average sales price was $291,401 vs. $248,945.  Spanish Fort:  Not much change here: 56 houses sold this quarter, compared to 58 houses this time last year. Average sale price was $336,258 vs. $266,509, an increase attributed to pricey new construction. Average time on market was 132 days. There are 58 homes on the market.  Lake Forest: Only 32 homes sold, compared to 82 this time last year. Why? Until recently there weren´t many homes for sale. Average sales price is $162,345, up from $138,524 this time last year. Market time was 59 days. There are 40 homes on the market.Daphne/Montrose: 162 homes sold this quarter vs. 130 during the 2nd quarter of 2005. Chalk it up to new construction, which helped raise the average sales price to $278,795 from $227,148 this time last year. It took an average 113 days to sell, and there are 299 homes on the market.  Fairhope/Point Clear: Things were a little slower here, with sales down from 171 last year to 140 this quarter. Average sales price was $317,543, compared to $309,114. Days on market averaged 110 days. There are 464 homes available, compared to 195 this time last year. (My take on the extreme jump in Fairhope inventory is that the long commute to I-10 and shopping on the "Northern Eastern Shore" is hurting this market).  So 3; the long and the short of it is that anything competitively priced under $200,000 is selling quickly in Mobile and Baldwin counties.   

It´s been the best of times for sellers whose homes are under $300,000.
But it hasn´t been so great for sellers whose homes are over $300,000.  As of the first week in April, two-thirds of the houses on the market from Spanish Fort to Point Clear are over $300,000.  And two-thirds of all the home sales in the first quarter of 2006 are under $300,000.   Signs point to a market that´s moderating, adjusting and settling from the frenzied pace of 2005.   This time last year, there were only 450 homes on the market. Now there are 622, with 210 under $300,000.  Average home sale prices in the first quarter of 2006 show increases over previous quarters.  But is that sustainable?  My professional opinion is that we won´t see prices falling  in the under-$200,000 range. These houses continue to sell quickly.  However, there may be some price adjustments in the over $300,000 range for sellers who need a quick sale.  And private home owners aren´t the only ones feeling the pinch.  One new subdivision in Daphne has 28 new homes in various stages of construction (from $365,000-499,900). One home under construction has been listed for over a year and a half.  Some home builders aren´t happy with the turn in the market. Neither are the sellers of high-priced properties. Nor are the buyers of lower-priced properties who don´t have enough choices in homes and see them sold before they can ever get inside.  So who´s happy? Generally, the sellers under $300,000.  On to the stats: 285 homes sold on the Eastern Shore in the first quarter of 2006 at an average price of $286,307, compared with 357 in the first quarter of 2005 with an average price of $239,940.  Fairhope/Point Clear:118 homes sold with an average sales price of $340,131. That´s compared with 117 sales in the first quarter of 2005, at an average price of $288,947. Average time it took to sell: 118 days.  There are 334 homes for sale here.  Daphne/Montrose: 104 homes sold here in the first quarter vs. 112 in the same time last year. Average sales price rose from $227,989 to $265,016. Average days on market was 111. There are 216 homes on the market.  Lake Forest: There were only 21 sales here, compared with 51 this time last year. I believe the rising prices are making it harder for Lake Forest residents to consider buying up, since it means purchasing a house that may be the same size, but newer and significantly more expensive. So they´re waiting.  Meanwhile, average sales price rose from $133,538 to $157,703. Average market time: 72 days. There are 11 houses on the market.  Spanish Fort: 39 homes sold here, the same as the first quarter of 2005. Average sales price rose from $228,707 to $259,370.   Average days on market was 103. There are 60 homes currently on the market.
October, 2005
Katrina: Real estate on the edge of destruction
  So what happens to real estate when you sit on the fringes of what many are calling the largest natural disaster in our nation´s history?  Take a look at what happened on Aug. 30, 2005, the day after Hurricane Katrina hit the Louisiana-Mississippi line, breaking the backs of communities from west of New Orleans to Bayou La Batre. That day, I got my first call about an evacuee needing a rental. In the ensuing days, there came another and another.  Then the most reasonably priced houses started being snatched up, bought often at full price, no home warranty, no survey. No fuss. At one point, Lake Forest subdivision, one of the largest in Alabama, had only 12 homes on the market (and I heard that six had contracts on them at the time).  But supply-and-demand works both ways. So here´s what I know and what I predict will come in the next year or two:¦ Homes are being listed for more than they would have just a couple of months ago. How high will they go? Don´t know, but I don´t think it will be something that you can retire on because of ¦ Appraisers ? those men and women who work for the mortgage lender and who ensure that a buyer isn´t being bamboozled into paying too much ? are struggling to justify the price increases.¦ After the mad rush of people who had lost everything, but could still purchase a second home, we´re in a sort of lull. Expect it to pick up like mad again as two things happen: Katrina victims get their insurance checks and decide to bail out of New Orleans or Mississippi; and, people who delayed their plans to relocate here because of the Katrina situation arrive and start looking for homes.¦ How about getting something fixed, like a roof, or maybe getting a bathroom remodeled? Some of these tradesmen have already left for the cleanup zone, with the promise of steady work and higher wages.¦ Builders of new homes already had waiting lists of customers 10-11 months long before Katrina. Now they are rethinking the way they do business. You´ve probably heard about people who have a contractor build their home, and just before they close the $250,000 house, it appraises for $280,000. Well, you´re lucky if that happens now.  In what may be one of the biggest shifts in our marketplace, many builders will not be listing, advertising, nor taking offers on homes until they are completely finished. This allows the builder to accurately adjust the price to account for anticipated price increases in Sheetrock and plywood. The builder also pockets the appreciation between the start of construction and completion of the home. And the builder also doesn´t have to answer to Mr. and Mrs. Buyer about flooring, painting or every little detail.¦ Insurance: It´s going no where but up.¦ It´s a great time to sell if you are moving out of the area 3; and I mean out of the Southern tier of states. It´s tricky ? but entirely doable ? if you are trying to make a change locally. Do your research if you´re moving to any of the states that took in evacuees.¦ Shifting a little away from the direct effect of Katrina. 3; We may be seeing a shift in what´s hot and what´s cooling down on the Eastern Shore. In this last quarter, Fairhope sellers got 96.4 percent of their asking prices; Spanish Fort sellers got 100.2 percent of their asking prices. Daphne/Montrose and Lake Forest sellers got 98.5 percent of their asking prices. Buyers are citing Fairhope´s home prices and travel time during rush hour as reasons to buy closer to the interstate. And there´s more retail development now near the interstate.¦ How about a renaissance in Lake Forest? The location is prime; housing is some of the most affordable on the Eastern Shore and it´s going up.  On to the numbers:  Lake Forest: Forty-six homes sold during the quarter, down slightly from 50 during the same period last year. Average sales price jumped from $123,439 a year ago to $138,759. It took only 90 days on average from list to close for Lake Forest home sellers. There are 23 houses currently on the market  Daphne/Montrose: The number of homes sold here this quarter was 111, down slightly from 118 during the third quarter of 2004. Average sale price was $244,518 vs. $253,881 this time last year. It took 107 days to sell. There are 126 homes on the market here.  Fairhope: This quarter, 106 homes sold, down from 135 this time last year. Average sales price was $287,639 compared to $258,906 in the third quarter of 2004. Average days on market: 121. There are 214 homes on the market.  Spanish Fort: Thirty-nine homes sold during the quarter, up from 26 a year ago. Average sales price was $242.609, up from $189,530. It took on average 117 days to sell here and 39 homes are on the market. 
July 2005
 Saturday, June 25, 6:45 a.m.  I have only two houses to show David from Oklahoma.  Check the Baldwin Multiple Listing hot sheet of all the new listings, sales, etc. - nothing. Check the Mobile MLS hot sheet. And there it is, a new listing. And a nice looking house, too.      By 9:25, we´re in. Great house, I tell David.  You think it will sell fast? he asks. Probably by the weekend, I say as we enter the living room. By the time I get to the bonus rooms upstairs, I tell him it may not last through Sunday. And at the screened porch, I tell him it won´t last the day.   Great house, but his wife is in Oklahoma. Grab the digital camera; email her the interior photos. She gives a thumbs up. The offer is written and faxed to the listing agent by 11:30 a.m. We give the sellers until 5 p.m. to respond, so we can beat out any competition, if it comes. By 3 p.m. we have an accepted offer.  And yes, another offer did come in just as David learned his offer was accepted.  Call it guerrilla real estate: Buyers must be quick, mentally and financially prepared to execute an offer, and willing to write a contract without contingencies. And I employ a few secret tactics in beating out the competition on a hot property.   For my sellers, it´s a fast game of hardball, with competing offers, bid wars and strategic negotiations.  This shapes up to make the 2nd quarter of 2005 a very good one for the Eastern Shore:    Fairhope: 171 homes sold this quarter, bringing the number of home sales for the year to 323 (compared to 246 for the first half of 2004). Average sales price was $309,114 vs. $235,066 for the 2nd quarter of 2004. Total days on market for the quarter: 130 (compared to 82 for Fairhope listings by my office, Remax By The Bay). There are 195 homes for sale here.    Daphne/Montrose: 130 homes sold here last quarter, with an average sales price of $227,148. This compares to 123 homes during the same period last year, with a sales price of $203,086.  For the year, 242 homes have sold (211 last year) Average market time: 113 days vs. 72 days for Remax By The Bay listings.   There are 144 homes on the market.    Lake Forest:  82 homes sold in this quarter, bringing year-to-date sales to 135 homes, compared to 76 in the first half of 2004. Average sales price:  $138,524 vs. $118,327 for the same time last year.  Average days on market: 97 days vs. only 55 days for my office.   There are 40 houses on the market here.  Spanish Fort: 58 homes sold in the quarter, for 97 sales year to date (82 sales YTD in 2004). Average sales price was $266,509, compared with $185,320 during the 2nd quarter of 2004.   There are 40 homes currently on the market.  Average days on market were 142, compared with 93 days for my office.   Yes, Remax agents sell homes more quickly, which usually translates into a higher sales price.        

  A year ago, I reported to you that statistics, anecdotes and my experiences indicated that this area was shifting to a seller´s market.  That shift may be complete now, with sellers holding the upper hand in negotiations on prices, terms and possession dates. It is important for sellers to have an agent who understands this market shift in order to get the best price for the property.  Market conditions may  change over the long term because there is a tremendous amount of new construction in the works that will compete with every single house on the market (Details on the back of the insert).  Looking at the short term, here´s what I see.?Some price adjustments downward as sellers over-reached the market value, which is defined as what a buyer is willing to pay.?Some buyers have abandoned the Eastern Shore (and even Baldwin County) in their search for homes because of the prices.  We have always lost some buyers to Mobile because of prices, but now we are losing some because we simply do not have anything even close to what they need.  Meanwhile 3;.?In this first quarter, 349 homes sold on the Eastern Shore with an average price of $239,940 vs. 247 homes with an average price of $191,829 last year.?Spanish Fort: Thirty-nine homes sold in the first quarter of 2005, up from 29 during the same time last year. Average sales price was $228,707, compared to $195,328 during the first quarter of 2004.  Average days on market dropped to 136 days from 156 days this time last year.  Houses currently on the market: 36, down from 70 at this time last year.?Lake Forest: A phenomenal turn-around here, as 51 homes sold in the first quarter, compared to 34 for the same time last year. Average sales price was $133,538 vs. $116,110 for the first quarter of 2004.  Market time fell from 182 days to 122 days.  And there are only 41 houses on the market, compared with 94 this time last year.  A couple of years ago, Lake Forest routinely had around 120 houses on the market .?Daphne: 112 houses sold this past quarter, compared to 88 sales in the first quarter of 2004. Average sales price was $227,980 vs. $220,836 during the same period last year.  Average days on market dropped from 234 last year (reflecting new construction time frames) to 139 days this past quarter. There are 153 homes currently on the market, down from 252 this time last year.?Fairhope: This time last year, 117 homes had sold. This year, it´s 147. Average sales price rose from $235,042 to $288,947.  Average days on market remained nearly steady at 159 days vs. 154 days in the first quarter of 2004.  There are 216 homes on the market here, com-pared with 290 last year.        

The new reality in home prices

March, 2009
 

 We have to look at what we have, not what we had.

That’s the advice of Suze Orman, personal financial guru.

What we have are glimmers of better days ahead. The stock market had a bit of a rebound. Nationally, existing home sales in February rose 5.1 percent. And with low interest rates and tax incentives for buyers who haven’t owned a home in the last 3 years, it’s a super time to make an offer.

Locally, buyer activity has picked up, with more people looking at homes, though that has not yet translated into homes going under contract. Buyers seem to be waiting until it suits their move schedule and they find the best house at the lowest price.

Home sale volume in Spanish Fort, Daphne/Montrose, Lake Forest and Fairhope/Point Clear was little changed in the first quarter of the year. There were 157 sales vs. 162 sales in the last quarter of 2008 and 171 sales in the first quarter of 2008..

Pricing remains soft. Average sales price was $223,575 in the 1st quarter, compared with $260,838 in the 4th quarter of 2008. Average sales price was $277,677 in the 1st quarter of 2008.

The recent average sales price reflects the lack of activity in the $300,000+ range. There are more than 500 homes listed in that price range, but only 31 sold in the 1st quarter.

Obviously this affects the average sales price, but it also has resulted in depreciation in this price range as an unsettling number of builders lose inventory to foreclosure, and corporate relocation companies dump properties to get them off their books.

You may have read that home prices in 20 major cities fell 19 percent compared to January 2008, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index.

Locally, it appears that prices have dropped 10 percent to 15 percent depending upon the location, age and condition of the house during this recession. Foreclosures aside, distress sales (divorce, estates, etc.), corporate relocation sales and equity heavy sales have set a benchmark in appraisals.

This means as much as you would like to sell your house for a 2005-2007 price, it probably won’t appraise for it. And if it doesn’t appraise, then the buyer cannot get his loan.

So this is our new reality. This is what we have, as Suze says.

Here’s one more look at 1st quarter numbers:

Fairhope: 59 homes sold with an average price of $242,771, compared with 61 sales with an average price of $312,432 during the same time last year. Homeowners took on average 6% off their list price to sell. Average time to sell: 236 days. Homes on market: 549

Daphne: 47 homes sold with an average price of $305,254. In the first quarter of 2008, 67 homes sold with an average price of $258,690. List-to-sale percentage: 95.37%. Average days on market: 128. There are 367 homes for sale.

Lake Forest: 24 homes sold with an average price of $140,756, compared with 20 sales with an average price of $161,194 the same time last year. Homeowners here only took 3% on average off their list price. Days on market: 147. Homes on market: 132.

Spanish Fort: 27 homes sold with an average price of $231,161. In the first quarter of 2008, 23 homes sold with an average price of $282,572. Days on market: 157 days. There are 132 homes for sale.

(Sales figures are from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service.)