Janet English Your Baldwin County Realtor

  Statistics can be manipulated. But the evidence shows a 17.5% decline in house values on the Eastern Shore in 2009. Coupled with our deceptive and behind-the-rest-of-the-nation 1% decline in 2008, housing prices are almost back to pre-Hurricane Ivan levels of 2003-04.

            The picture is a bit brighter in terms of the number of homes sold. Low interest rates, the first-time homebuyer tax credit and an abundance of inventory and incentives helped check the decline in the total sales to only 3.5% compared to 2008.

            For the year, 803 homes sold between Spanish Fort and Point Clear, compared with 833 last year. Of these sales, 35% (281) were new construction and 14% (110) were foreclosures or short sales. That means “regular” existing home sales represented only half of homes sold.

            Perhaps because of the entry of first-time buyers into the market, a little more than half of all sales were $200,000 or lower; and 82% of all sales were under $300,000. Yet, at present, only about a third of the Eastern Shore homes for sale are priced under $200,000.

            Sellers of homes priced over $300,000, which represent a third of the Eastern Shore inventory, will be under great pressure to compete for the few buyers in this market. Realtors and market-watching investors expect foreclosures to become more commonplace in the upper price ranges.

            But builders with new construction in the $200,000-and-lower range are making sales.

            Inventory is still high, with some 1,144 homes on the market (compared to 1,082 this time last January). There are no indicators to show that prices have hit bottom or stabilized locally.

            At the risk of sounding like a used car salesman (my apologies to all those in that noble profession – Guy, I mean you!) it’s a good time to buy, as the home-buyer tax credit has been extended to existing home owners who qualify and buy before the April 30 deadline.

            In fact, buyer activity increased during the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, local Realtors say. Hopefully, that’s a sign of things to come.

            So now, a look back …

            On the Eastern Shore, the 4^th quarter of 2009 showed improvement in the number of sales, which rose to 183 compared with the 162 during the 4^th quarter of 2008, when the housing and banking crisis crested. Average sales price declined from $260,838 during the quarter last year to $230,117 this past quarter.

            For the year, the average sales price fell from $287,736 in 2008 to $237,020 in 2009.

            Fairhope: 64 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, up from 57 during the same time in 2008. Average price was $265,091, compared with $304,455 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 172 days to 211 days.

            For the year, 271 homes were sold, down from 293 in 2009. Average sales price dropped from $353,765 to $275,373 (not a typo). Days on market rose from 197 to 221.

            Daphne/Montrose: 72 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, nearly unchanged from the 69 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price increased from $248,922 to $250,140. Days on market rose from 166 to 176.

            During all of 2009, 303 homes were sold, compared to 321 in 2008. Average sales price was $238,999, down from $271,599 in 2008. Days on market stretched from 150 to 170.

            Lake Forest: 27 homes sold, up from 15  in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price dropped from $139,600 in the 4^th quarter of 2008 to $134,207 this last quarter. Days on market rose from 124 to 132.

            For the year, there were 104 sales, compared to 99 in 2008. Average price dropped from $157,355 in 2008 to $142,757 in 2009. Days on market decreased from 159 to 141.

            Spanish Fort: 20 homes sold in this past quarter, again almost unchanged from the 21 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price went from $268,198 to $175,594 (not a typo). Days on market decreased from 130 to 114.

            In 2008, 125 homes were sold vs. 120 in 2008. Average price dropped from $277,245 to $227,496. Days on market rose from 140 to 149.

            Inventory: Here are the current homes on market

            Spanish Fort: 155

            Daphne/Montrose: 362

            Fairhope: 523

            Lake Forest: 104

Home sales improved slightly in November, with 65 properties sold compared with 59 in October.

New construction (most selling between $180,000 and $200,000) accounted for 37% of all the sales on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, metro area.

For the price-per-square-foot fans, the average in new construction sales was $98.76 a square foot; the low, $77.94; and the high, $126.60. These numbers are significant as an indicator of what sellers of existing homes could hope to sell for, particularly in neighborhoods with competing new construction.

The appeal of new construction is not new, but with the home-buyer tax credit initially targeting first-time buyers who are often younger buyers, the attraction of "new" is even stronger. In fact, Move.com reported in November that a survey shows 5 percent expect to buy a home in 2010 and those buyers are also most likely to be 34 years and younger.

On the Eastern Shore, new construction incentives sometimes include generous closing cost assistance for buyers, upgrade packages (fences and the like) and selling incentives to Realtors.

All of this makes it more difficult for existing home-sellers to compete for sales.

Mortgage interest rates remain low - below 5 percent.

However, recently announced proposed changes at the Federal Housing Administration may impact the market. FHA loans accounted for 3% of loans in 2006, but now have been used by 30% of borrowers as conventional mortgage credit standards have tightened. Also, FHA loans currently require only 3.5 percent down, a figure that's attractive to home-buyers who suffered financial losses in the market crash.

Walking a fine line between helping the housing market and protecting the viability of the FHA, the Obama administration has proposed but not yet adopted:

• Requiring more money down
• Limiting seller-paid closing costs to 3 percent instead of the present 6 percent
• Increasing the mortgage insurance premium

FHA loans are limited to $285,000 in Baldwin County.

There are other changes expected in January that will affect the duration of time between contract and closing and the viability of some mortgage brokers (as opposed to lenders and banks) to approve loans.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,218
Spanish Fort: 164
Daphne: 381
Fairhope: 549
Lake Forest: 124
 
Pending sales
Total:  110 (39 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 17

Daphne: 49
Fairhope: 32
Lake Forest: 12
 
 
Closed sales for November 2009
Total: 65
Average sales price: $192,968, down from $204,107 in October, $233,867 in September and $263,997 in August.
Median sales price: $$182,801, up from $179,900 in October, but down from $184,900 in September.
List to sale percentage: 95.96%, down from 96.82% in October and 96.19% in September
Spanish Fort: 9
Daphne: 26
Fairhope: 18
Lake Forest: 12
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

  A year after the 2008  financial meltdown, let’s take stock of the correction in home prices on the Eastern Shore.

  ■ The number of homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2009 was only 6% behind home sales in the 3rd quarter of 2008.

  ■ Average sales price this past quarter was $243,176 – 19% lower than the average sales price of $298,947 a year ago.

  The first statistic shows that the market is stabilizing in one respect.

  A year ago, home sales between Spanish Fort and Point Clear fell off a cliff. Last summer 128 homes sold in June and another 135 in July. Then came August 2008 with only 84 sales, a 40 percent drop in the number of homes sold.

  That we are only 6% behind the third quarter of 2008 demonstrates the difficult and momentous shift in attitudes toward home prices. Because home sales involve so many people – lenders, insurers, builders and their suppliers, tradesmen, Realtors, home inspectors, appraisers, movers, furnishers, etc. – they are essential to stable economy, despite the falling prices.

  Locally, home prices continue to decline. Nationally, the rate of decline slowed for a sixth straight month, according to the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index.           Looking at these 20 major metro markets, the index noted a better-than-expected 13.3% decline compared to a year ago. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said: "These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values."

  On the Eastern Shore, 569 price reductions were made on homes in the 3rd quarter; there are 1,209 properties listed.

  On to the stats:

  Overall, the pace of sales continues to improve, from 157 sales in the 1st quarter, to 207 in the 2nd quarter to 248 in the 3rd quarter, including 29 foreclosures or short sales (pre-foreclosures).            The average time it took to sell was 179 days, a figured skewed by the fact that many properties had already gone through a previous listing.

  Fairhope/Point Clear: 78 homes sold, compared with 98 a year ago this time and 70 during the 2nd quarter 2009. Average sales price was $300,699, down from $359,262 a year ago and but up from $284,033 in the 2nd quarter. (The sales of three homes over $1.7 million helped boost this quarter’s average.) Average time it took to sell: 202 days. There are 562 houses on the market here.

  Daphne/Montrose: 107 homes sold compared with 105 sales a year ago, and up from 73 sales the 2nd quarter. Average price was $231,746, down from $289,832 a year ago and $243,600 in the 2nd quarter. Average days on market: 167. There are 373 homes for sale.

  Lake Forest: 28 homes sold, exactly the same as a year ago and up slightly from the 25 that sold in the 2nd quarter. Average sales price was $150,107, compared to $153,965 a year ago and $145,680 in the 2nd quarter. Average days on market: 137. There are 134 homes for sale here.

  Spanish Fort: 36 homes sold, compared with 34 a year ago and 39 in the 2nd quarter. Average price was $224,392 vs. $272,853 a year ago and $255,977 in the 2nd quarter. Market time averaged 178 days. There are 140  homes for sale.

A year ago, home sales on the Eastern Shore fell off a cliff. Then they tumbled even further, apparently hitting bottom in the early spring.

But that month – August 2008 – showed a breath-taking 40 percent decline in the number of houses sold between Spanish Fort and Point Clear on the Eastern Shore the Mobile Metro area. To demonstrate: 128 homes sold in June 2008 and another 135 sold in July. Then came August, 2008, with only 84 sales.

Even with anemic sales, the average sales price was $303,576 and the median was $249,250.

Now, a year later, the average sales price was $263,997 and the median was $187,450, a reflection of the extreme correction in housing prices, as well as what type of house is selling.

But a year ago, only a little more than a hundred houses were under contract. Now, 158 are in the process of closing, a 34 percent increase over the year, and certainly a hopeful sign.

Total sales are virtually unchanged from a year ago with 82 closed last month.

Still,  more than 200 price adjustments were made by homeowners last month.

Foreclosures and short sales (distressed homeowners who owe more than their houses are now worth) represent 4% of listed properties, yet they are 15% of August ‘09 sales and 10% of houses under contract. The lure of a possible deal is as strong as ever, putting price pressure on everyone who is trying to sell.

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in August, 2009:
Total houses for sale: 1,195
Spanish Fort: 137
Daphne: 366
Fairhope: 569
Lake Forest: 123
 
Pending sales
Total: 158
Spanish Fort: 26
Daphne: 75
Fairhope: 41
Lake Forest: 16
 
 
Closed sales for August 2009
Total: 82
Average sales price: $263,997, up from $262,616 in July.
Median sales price: $187,450, down from $204,500 in July
List to sale percentage: 96.56%
Spanish Fort: 11
Daphne: 38
Fairhope: 23
Lake Forest: 10
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

Home sales statistics on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area continue to show signs of a stabilizing market, though Realtors generally believe home prices continue to fall.

Both home sales and pending sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope/Point Clear showed slight increases over June, 2009. Yet, 20 percent of home sellers reduced prices in July alone to move property.

Seventy-six homes sold in July, up from 73 that sold in June. Pending sales remain encouraging with 162 single-family residences under contract, up from 157 in June. There was a little erosion in the list-to-sale percentage which fell from 96.21% in June to 95.88% in July.

 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in July, 2009:
Total houses for sale: 1,214
Spanish Fort: 147
Daphne: 372
Fairhope: 562
Lake Forest: 133
 
Pending sales
Total: 162
Spanish Fort: 23
Daphne: 81
Fairhope: 43
Lake Forest: 15
 
 
Closed sales for July 2009
Total: 76
Average sales price: $262,616, up from $252,497 in June, but down from $265,549 in May.
Median sales price: $204,500, down from $211,400 in June and $225,000 in May
List to sale percentage: 95.88%
Spanish Fort: 10
Daphne: 23
Fairhope: 32
Lake Forest: 11
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

June home sales dipped slightly but pending sales and the list-to-sale percentage show that the market may be stabilizing.
Seventy-three homes sold in June on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area, down from the 77 sales in May in the area encompassing Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope/Point Clear.
Pending sales increased from 136 in the first week of June to 157 as of July 8, 2009. Sellers also got on average 96.21% of the list price in June, compared with 95.89% in May.
 
 
Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in June, 2009:
Total houses for sale: 1,251
Spanish Fort: 148
Daphne: 377
Fairhope: 600
Lake Forest: 126
 
Pending sales
Total: 157
Spanish Fort: 28
Daphne: 69
Fairhope: 42
Lake Forest: 18
 
 
Closed sales for June 2009
Total: 73
Average sales price: $252,497, down from $265,549 in May.
Median sales price: $211,400, down from $225,000 in May
List to sale percentage: 96.21%
Spanish Fort: 12
Daphne: 28
Fairhope: 23
Lake Forest: 10
 
(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service

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