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May home sales increased 22 percent over April on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area. This typical seasonal bump of 77 homes sold was still some 15 percent lower than sales in May 2008 when 91 houses closed. However, it was better than April’s 53 sales in Spanish Fort, Daphne/Lake Forest and Fairhope/Point Clear. Pending sales have declined slightly with 136 homes under contract, compared to 143 under contract this time last month. Average sales price and median sales price both rose significantly. But this reflects the type of home selling, not that home prices are increasing across the board. In fact, May marks a milestone: The first and only home over $1 million to close on the Eastern Shore this entire year closed in May. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in May, 2009: Total houses for sale: 1,240 Spanish Fort: 141 Daphne: 372 Fairhope: 596 Lake Forest: 137 Pending sales Total: 136 Spanish Fort: 26 Daphne: 61 Fairhope: 34 Lake Forest: 15 Closed sales for May 2009 Total: 77 Average sales price: $265,549, up from $217,849 in April. Median sales price: $225,000, up from $206,563 in April List to sale percentage: 95.89% Spanish Fort: 18 Daphne: 22 Fairhope: 26 Lake Forest: 8 (Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)
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Precious 4/2.5, bonus rm, pool
• 2,060 sq. ft., 2 bath, 4 bdrm 1 1/2 story - $159,900 Lake Forest, Daphne - Precious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath sits on a lushly landscaped lot with your own backyard oasis. Greatroom has soaring vaulted ceiling, wood-burning fireplace and new laminant wood flooring. Master is down with bath and updates like designer sinks. Two bedrooms and another bath are upstairs. Downstairs is a 4th bedroom with bonus room for guest/teen suite or office. Kitchen features cottage-like details with bead n board ceiling, split brick floors and bay window seat in eat-in area. Through the kitchen's French doors is a spacious screened porch where you can enter your private retreat, including a secluded bricked patio, fountain, deck and above-ground pool with sundeck. Property information
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Pending home sales increased in the last half of April on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile Metro area. Overall, home sales declined in April to 53 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear, showing that the housing market is still bobbing through choppy waters. To demonstrate the crests and troughs in sold stats: January: 40 February: 54 March: 60 Expect better stats in May, with 143 homes under contract in this area, up from the 108 homes that were pending the first part of April. Still, there is a 22-month supply of homes at the current selling rate. Only 35% of the homes under contract are more than $250,000, while this price range makes up 58% of the homes on the market on the Eastern Shore. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in April, 2009: Total houses for sale: 1,210 Spanish Fort: 138 Daphne: 358 Fairhope: 578 Lake Forest: 136 Pending sales Total: 143 Spanish Fort: 35 Daphne: 57 Fairhope: 34 Lake Forest: 17 Closed sales for March 2009 Total: 53 Average sales price: $217,849, down again from $234,084 in March. Median sales price: $187,000, down from $206,563 in March List to sale percentage: 95.49% Spanish Fort: 9 Daphne: 18 Fairhope: 20 Lake Forest: 6 (Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)
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Beautifully updated
• 1,680 sq. ft., 2 bath, 3 bdrm single story - $128,000 - $3,000 in closing costs Hand Land, Bay Minette - With updates worthy of the extreme makeover team, you'll be delighted at every turn in this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Bay Minette. New paint, hardwood and tile flooring, and baths are just the beginning. Check out the kitchen with Silestone countertops, gas cooktop with convection oven, Jenn-Aire refrigerator, new cabinetry and designer lighting. The baths have gotten a thoughtful update too. Even the doorknobs are new! Third bedroom and second bath are separated by a screened in porch/breezeway, which make it perfect for a master or mother-in-law suite. Roof, HVAC, doors, windows, screened porches are all new. ***Seller to pay $3,000 in buyer's closing costs *** Property information
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Exquisite 4/3 on 1 acre
• 3,359 sq. ft., 3 bath, 4 bdrm 1 1/2 story "1 bedroom, full bath & sitting area up" - $419,900 Saluda Ridge, Spanish Fort - This classic Creole has been beautifully updated with new counterops, flooring and paint. Master and three bedrooms are down. The master features an updated luxury bath with double vanities, jet tub and separate shower. There is a bonus room, greatroom and sunroom down and a small ilving area up that adjoins the only bedroom upstairs (full bath). This home features a large patio and secluded backyard. Property information
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March homes sales on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay rose again to 60 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear in January, compared to 54 in February and 40 in January. Buyers are looking, but that’s not materializing into a strong increase in pending sales. As of April 7, 108 homes are under contract, compared to 92 last month and 102 in January. As the reality of the housing market correction sinks in, over 590 price adjustments -- a few up but most down -- were made in March. Inventory increased to 1,190 homes for sale, up from 1,129 in February. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in March, 2009: Total houses for sale: 1,190 Spanish Fort: 134 Daphne: 364 Fairhope: 561 Lake Forest: 131 Pending sales Total: 108 Spanish Fort: 26 Daphne: 43 Fairhope: 28 Lake Forest: 11 Closed sales for March 2009 Total: 60 Average sales price: $234,084, a healthy increase from $208,019 in February, but much lower than the average in March of last year of $290 Median sales price: $206, 563, another increase from February’s $179,950, but again down from March ‘08’s $231,750 List to sale percentage: 94.44% Spanish Fort: 9 Daphne: 18 Fairhope: 24 Lake Forest: 9 (Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)
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We have to look at what we have, not what we had. That’s the advice of Suze Orman, personal financial guru. What we have are glimmers of better days ahead. The stock market had a bit of a rebound. Nationally, existing home sales in February rose 5.1 percent. And with low interest rates and tax incentives for buyers who haven’t owned a home in the last 3 years, it’s a super time to make an offer. Locally, buyer activity has picked up, with more people looking at homes, though that has not yet translated into homes going under contract. Buyers seem to be waiting until it suits their move schedule and they find the best house at the lowest price. Home sale volume in Spanish Fort, Daphne/Montrose, Lake Forest and Fairhope/Point Clear was little changed in the first quarter of the year. There were 157 sales vs. 162 sales in the last quarter of 2008 and 171 sales in the first quarter of 2008.. Pricing remains soft. Average sales price was $223,575 in the 1st quarter, compared with $260,838 in the 4th quarter of 2008. Average sales price was $277,677 in the 1st quarter of 2008. The recent average sales price reflects the lack of activity in the $300,000+ range. There are more than 500 homes listed in that price range, but only 31 sold in the 1st quarter. Obviously this affects the average sales price, but it also has resulted in depreciation in this price range as an unsettling number of builders lose inventory to foreclosure, and corporate relocation companies dump properties to get them off their books. You may have read that home prices in 20 major cities fell 19 percent compared to January 2008, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index. Locally, it appears that prices have dropped 10 percent to 15 percent depending upon the location, age and condition of the house during this recession. Foreclosures aside, distress sales (divorce, estates, etc.), corporate relocation sales and equity heavy sales have set a benchmark in appraisals. This means as much as you would like to sell your house for a 2005-2007 price, it probably won’t appraise for it. And if it doesn’t appraise, then the buyer cannot get his loan. So this is our new reality. This is what we have, as Suze says. Here’s one more look at 1st quarter numbers: Fairhope: 59 homes sold with an average price of $242,771, compared with 61 sales with an average price of $312,432 during the same time last year. Homeowners took on average 6% off their list price to sell. Average time to sell: 236 days. Homes on market: 549 Daphne: 47 homes sold with an average price of $305,254. In the first quarter of 2008, 67 homes sold with an average price of $258,690. List-to-sale percentage: 95.37%. Average days on market: 128. There are 367 homes for sale. Lake Forest: 24 homes sold with an average price of $140,756, compared with 20 sales with an average price of $161,194 the same time last year. Homeowners here only took 3% on average off their list price. Days on market: 147. Homes on market: 132. Spanish Fort: 27 homes sold with an average price of $231,161. In the first quarter of 2008, 23 homes sold with an average price of $282,572. Days on market: 157 days. There are 132 homes for sale. (Sales figures are from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service.)
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Space for everyone and everything
• 2,556 sq. ft., 2 bath, 4 bdrm 2 story -  MLS® $195,000 Spanish Fort Estates, Spanish Fort - ***PRICED $15,000 UNDER CURRENT 2008 appraisal.***
Delightfully updated, this 4/2 with bonus room has space for everyone. You'll find a living, dining, kitchen, master and two bedrooms on the main level, with a big bonus room, bath and bedroom on the lower level. Totally updated kitchen with dark cherry cabinets, tile. New carpet; neutral paint. Big screened porch (limited views of Mobile Bay in winter), plus unfinished 15x26 room over garage for office, hobbies, workshop. Covered & open patio perfect for barbecues. This home qualifies for an FHA loan. Property information
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February home sales on the Eastern Shore ticked up to 54 houses closed compared with 40 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear in January. For a February, it wasn’t a bad month compared to the fall of ‘08. It was, however, not as good as February 2008 when 64 homes sold. A couple of things stand out from analyzing data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service. Only 6 homes on the Eastern Shore over $400,000 have gone under contract since the first of the year. Pending sales registered a slight decline with 92 homes under contract as of March 4, 2009, compared with 102 under contract a month ago. As expected in our early spring, inventory is rising with 1,129 homes on the market in this area, an increase of 50 listings over last month. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in February, 2009: Total houses for sale: 1,129 Spanish Fort: 127 Daphne: 352 Fairhope: 527 Lake Forest: 123 Pending sales Total: 92 Spanish Fort: 19 Daphne: 30 Fairhope: 33 Lake Forest: 10 Closed sales for February 2009 Total: 54 Average sales price: $208,019, down from $228,944 in January 2009 Median sales price: $179,950, down from $216,800 in December List to sale percentage: 94.69% Spanish Fort: 12, where the highest selling price was $576,000 Daphne: 12, where the highest selling price was $375,000 Fairhope: 19, where the top seller was $534,600 Lake Forest: 11, where the highest selling price was $192,500
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January has never been a strong month for home sales. So it’s no real surprise that only 40 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear last month. In fact, only 42 sold in January 2008. So I remain watchful for signs showing the housing market’s direction in the coming months. Pending sales are up to 102 as of Feb. 4, 2008, compared with 86 homes under contract just after the New Year. Inventory remains roughly the same at 1,090 homes for sale on the Eastern Shore. A couple of statistics show that sales of high-end homes were anemic, with the average sales price dropping dramatically. However, the list-to-sale percentage rebounded to 94.21% in January, up from 91.99% in December. Stats are drawn from the Baldwin Multiple Listing System. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in January, 2009: Total houses for sale: 1,079 Spanish Fort: 127 Daphne: 327 Fairhope: 506 Lake Forest: 130 Pending sales Total: 102 Spanish Fort: 24 Daphne: 30 Fairhope: 35 Lake Forest: 13 Closed sales for January 2009 Total: 40 Average sales price: $228,944, down from $274,054 in December Median sales price: $216,800, down from $225,000 in December List to sale percentage: 94.21% Spanish Fort: 7, where the highest selling price was $259,900 Daphne: 17, where the highest selling price was $394,500 Fairhope: 13, where the top seller was a $670,000 foreclosure Lake Forest: 3, where the highest selling price was $161,000
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• 2,331 sq. ft., 2 bath, 4 bdrm 1 1/2 story - $314,900 - Make a splash poolside Spanish Fort Estates, Spanish Fort - Immaculately kept 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home plus bonus room will be perfect for your summer fun with its sparkling pool and sundeck. Enter through the foyer and then experience the two-story greatroom with its bank of windows overlooking the pool. A two-sided wood-burning fireplace opens to both the greatroom and the breakfast area in the kitchen. There's also formal dining with hardwood floors. Master is down; adjacent bath has separate tub, shower and double vanities. Upstairs you'll find 3 bedrooms plus a bonus room for office, rec room, or fifth bedroom (its current use). This is a super home in a super neighborhood. (Limited view of Mobile skyline from upstairs bedroom.) Property information
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Pristine 4/2 plus bonus room
• 2,100 sq. ft., 2 bath, 4 bdrm single story - $229,900 Bay Branch Estates, Daphne - Must see inside this pristine 4/2 with bonus area; it will not disappoint! Bright and open, it features a central greatroom with wood-burning fireplace, frieze carpet and a vaulted ceiling with contemporary lines. The large kitchen has a breakfast area overlooking the backyard and breakfast bar. There's also formal dining. The bonus area is off the foyer, perfect for formal living, an office or den. This split plan has an 18x13 master with adjoining bath. The bath has separate tub and shower, double sinks and his-and-hers walk-in closets. Take in the beginning or the end of the day on the 8x25 covered porch with ceiling fans, overlooking a large fenced yard. And if you're one for details, there's a sprinkler system, security system, gutters and 2-inch faux wood blinds throughout. This home is in mint condition. Property information
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When will home prices go back up? Of the 5 listing appointments that I went on last week, only two owners chose to list. The others wanted to wait until home prices rebounded to 2005-2006 levels. These individual sellers were looking for a price point some 10% to 25% above what the market showed they would get today … or rather 9 months down the line when they could expect a sale. So how long will they have to wait for their home – which keeps getting older and possibly more dated – to reach the magic number? Admittedly, it’s foolhardy to try to definitively answer this question. But there are statistics that show that we will be waiting a few years even with the optimum circumstances for prices to reach those golden days of 2005-2006. For discussion purposes, let’s assume we are talking about the broad market. In fact, all real estate is local, influenced by supply and demand, influx of new industry and workers, availability of housing after natural disasters, etc. Further, the market must hit bottom first and there are several analysts predicting that this will happen in mid-June. In fact, Jim Cramer of Mad Money says it will happen precisely 161 days from today. Love the drama! But in order for it to stabilize, so must the rates of employment, mortgage interest and foreclosures. Financial markets must find more sure footing and those big bad demons of inflation and deflation must be held at bay. So let’s assume that bottom is hit in June and all the other complexities are non-factors here. Existing home prices fell 1.4% in 2007 and 10% in 2008, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. That’s 11.4% that needs to be regained. The outlook predicts 0.6% appreciation in 2009 and 4.8% appreciation in 2010 (both probably all too rosy). Since that’s as far as the outlook goes, let’s assume another 5% appreciation in 2011. So the answer is: late 2011 or 2012. For some sellers, there’s no problem in putting house selling on hold for several years. If you’re a seller who bought in 2004-2006 and there is actual money to be lost, by all means wait if you can. But I believe that owners of existing homes may find that they simply missed the golden opportunity. In finance it’s called unrealized gains. To wait a year before putting a house on the market is not only prudent, but helps the rest of the housing market by keeping inventory down. But to wait several years, while your residence ages (affecting price) and your house style becomes more dated, may not be a better choice.
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2008? Whew! Glad that’s over. 2009? At least we know what we’re dealing with. Here’s a backward look on a sorry year in real estate, and a forward look in which I will stick my neck out. 2008: n Twenty-four percent fewer homes sold than in 2007 from Spanish Fort to Point Clear. n Foreclosures, short sales and distress sales (essentially pre-foreclosures) captured buyers’ attention. n On the Eastern Shore, the average sales price was down only 1% from the previous year and the median sales price was down just 6%. But it didn’t feel that way, and a late-year statistic proved the point: In December, sellers took on average 8% off the list price to move their homes. 2009: n Interest rates have already dropped after the Fed unveiled a plan to buy $500 billion in mortgage securities and debt. For just a few hours one day in December, the rate hit 4.25%. The drop has triggered a new refinancing boom and hopefully will spill over into home sales. n Business Week magazine predicts the market has hit bottom, but prices will remain weak through the end of 2009. It cites the large inventory of houses as a negative and predicts potential sellers who have been sitting on the fence will put their homes on the market at the first sign of improvement, leading to more inventory. Locally, November was the worst month for sales (only 47 on the Eastern Shore), mirroring sales the month after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. I agree – and hope – we’ve hit bottom in terms of the number of sales. n There’s a lot of pent-up demand. Marriage, divorce, new babies, retirement: Think about everyone who had a housing need that they didn’t act on in 2008. This year may be their year. n Finally, a couple of opinions: Houses with great prices, and great houses, will sell, as always. If you’re considering buying up or down, why wait? You may get less for your present house, but you will probably pay less for your new one, and the interest rate will be very attractive. On to the stats: Fourth quarter sales on the Eastern Shore registered a yearly low. Only 162 sold, compared with 265 in the third quarter. Average sales price was $260,838, with sellers taking on average 6% off the list price to sell. Average days on market were 162. For the year, 833 homes sold, compared to 1,092 in 2007. Average sales price declined slightly from $292,091 to $287,736. The time it took to sell lengthened from 144 days in 2007 to 166 days in 2008. (Note: Both figures were skewed by houses being re-listed.) Fairhope: 57 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 68 during the same time in 2007. Average price was $304,455, compared with $356,772 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 157 days to 172 days. For the year, 293 homes sold, compared with 400 sales in 2007. Average prices actually rose from $339,028 in 2007 to $353,765. Days on market rose from 162 to 197. Daphne/Montrose: 69 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 58 in the 4th quarter of 2007. Average sales price declined to $248,922, from $258,273 at the same time in 2007. Days on market rose from 153 to 166. During all of 2008, 321 homes sold, compared with 394 in 2007. Average sales price was $271,599, down from $295,486 for all of 2007. Days on market stretched from 141 to 150. Lake Forest: 15 homes sold, compared with 25 sales in the 4th quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $162,768 to $139,600. Days on market lengthened from 101 days to 124 days. For the whole of the year, 99 homes sold, compared with 114 in 2007. Average prices dropped from $170,930 to $157,355 in 2008. Days on market rose from 110 to 159. Spanish Fort: 21 homes sold in the 4th quarter, compared with 33 during the last quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $304,803 to $268,198 in 2008. The time it took to sell was virtually unchanged at about 130 days. In 2008, 120 homes sold vs. 145 in 2007. Average sales price dropped from $281,232 to $277,245. The days on market stretched from 123 days to 140 days. Inventory: As of Jan. 8, there were 1,082 homes on the market on the Eastern Shore. ■ Spanish Fort: 118 ■ Daphne/Montrose: 328 ■ Fairhope: 502 ■ Lake Forest: 134. If you have specific questions about your home’s value, feel free to call or email.
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Home sales improved in December in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear. Sixty-six homes sold in December, up from the abysmal statistic of only 47 home sales in November. Pending sales dropped to 86 under contract as of Jan. 3, 2009. That’s a decrease from the 98 under contract in November. Inventory dropped from 1,157 homes for sale on the Eastern Shore as of early December to 1,079 homes for sale Jan. 3, 2009. But this is only because a tremendous number of listings expired with the old year. Expect them to be brought back on the market rapidly. Interest rates dropped before Christmas to a low of 4.25%, but that held briefly. Still, rates have vacillated in the upper-4% to lower-5% area since. The list to sale percentage has widened, meaning sellers are making deals to get houses sold. In November, the list-to-sale percentage was 95.21%; in December it dropped to 91.99%. In other words, sellers took on average 8% off the price of the house. Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in December: Total houses for sale: 1,079 Spanish Fort: 118 Daphne: 329 Fairhope: 501 Lake Forest: 1131 Pending sales Total: 86 Spanish Fort: 20 Daphne: 28 Fairhope: 29 Lake Forest: 9 Closed sales for December 2008 Total: 66 Average sales price: $274,054 Median sales price: $225,000 List to sale percentage: 91.99% Spanish Fort: 7 Daphne: 24 Fairhope: 21 Lake Forest: 5
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